Theses and Dissertations

Issuing Body

Mississippi State University

Advisor

Mercer, Andrew E.

Committee Member

Fuhrmann, Christopher M.

Committee Member

Dyer, Jamie L.

Committee Member

Brown, Michael E.

Date of Degree

1-1-2016

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Degree Name

Master of Science

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Department

Department of Geosciences

Abstract

A better understanding of the performance in precision of physical parameterizations in NWP models is necessary for improving forecasts of tornadic outbreaks. For this study, WRF simulations of tornadic outbreaks were run using configurations of three microphysics, three convective physics, and two PBL physics schemes. Each configuration was subjected to ten iterations of SKEBS. The means of the ten perturbation members of each parameterization configuration were bootstrapped for SB CAPE, SB CIN, and 0-3km SRH to find 95% confidence interval widths at each grid point. Maps of these spreads provided a spatial analysis of the uncertainty. Analyses on correlations and clusters were performed to determine how the configurations related spatially and in magnitude. These uncertainties were further bootstrapped to compare the mean of each configuration in boxplots. The effect on the uncertainty produced by each configuration varied according to the diagnostic variable being analyzed.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11668/20727

Comments

parameterization||tornado outbreak||sensitivity||WRF

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