Theses and Dissertations

Advisor

Ball, John E.

Committee Member

Tang, Bo

Committee Member

Luo, Chaomin

Date of Degree

12-10-2021

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Major

Electrical and Computer Engineering

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

James Worth Bagley College of Engineering

Department

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Abstract

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is a problem that researchers in the prognostics and health management (PHM) community have been studying for decades. Both physics-based and data-driven methods have been investigated, and in recent years, deep learning has gained significant attention. When sufficiently large and diverse datasets are available, deep neural networks can achieve state-of-the-art performance in RUL prediction for a variety of systems. However, for end users to trust the results of these models, especially as they are integrated into safety-critical systems, RUL prediction uncertainty must be captured. This work explores an approach for estimating both epistemic and heteroscedastic aleatoric uncertainties that emerge in RUL prediction deep neural networks and demonstrates that quantifying the overall impact of these uncertainties on predictions reveal valuable insight into model performance. Additionally, a study is carried out to observe the effects of RUL truth data augmentation on perceived uncertainties in the model.

Sponsorship

Army Research Laboratory

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