Mississippi State University
Ramirez Avila, John J.
Gutenson, Joseph L.
Date of Degree
Graduate Thesis - Open Access
Master of Science (M.S.)
James Worth Bagley College of Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.
The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the coupled model, resultant streamflow forecasts with lead times up to 90 days are compared with stream gage data across the three-year historical period of interest. The coupled model system performed well in downstream reaches and with shorter lead times, but forecast skill degraded for lead times past 15 days.
Yeates, Elissa Marie, "Development and evaluation of seasonal, continental-scale streamflow forecasts" (2022). Theses and Dissertations. 5510.
Available for download on Wednesday, May 15, 2024