Theses and Dissertations



Issuing Body

Mississippi State University


Ramirez Avila, John J.

Committee Member

Freyne, Seamus

Committee Member

Gutenson, Joseph L.

Date of Degree


Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access


Civil Engineering

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)


James Worth Bagley College of Engineering


Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering


Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.

The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the coupled model, resultant streamflow forecasts with lead times up to 90 days are compared with stream gage data across the three-year historical period of interest. The coupled model system performed well in downstream reaches and with shorter lead times, but forecast skill degraded for lead times past 15 days.

Available for download on Wednesday, May 15, 2024