Discrimination the roles of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols on tropical cyclone frequency from downscaling CMIP6 models

Author

George Gyabaah, Mississippi State UniversityFollow

ORCID

https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4268-5012

Issuing Body

Mississippi State University

Advisor

Fosu, Boniface

Committee Member

Mercer,Andrew E.

Committee Member

Rudzin, John

Date of Degree

12-13-2024

Original embargo terms

Worldwide

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Major

Geoscience (Professional Meteorology/Climatology)

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Department

Department of Geosciences

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are devastating disasters, yet predicting their future activity remains highly uncertain. To better understand the impacts of different anthropogenic forcings, specifically greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols on the TCs, I downscaled the single forcing experiments of 11 CMIP6 models in the Columbia HAZard Model (CHAZ). This analysis focused on changes in the distribution of the North Atlantic (ATL) and Western North Pacific (WNP) basins and explored the shift in environmental variables that drive them. We then used the formulation of the genesis component of CHAZ as a constraint to quantify the relative contribution of each predictor relative to each forcing. TC frequency has increased in the WNP and decreased in the ATL. GHGs have increased TC activity in the WNP but reduced it in the ATL, specifically, Gulf of Mexico, whereas aerosols showed the opposite effect, with potential intensity emerging as a key factor in these changes.

Recommended Citation

Gyabaah, George, "Discrimination the roles of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols on tropical cyclone frequency from downscaling CMIP6 models" (2024). Theses and Dissertations. 6371.
https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td/6371