Theses and Dissertations

Advisor

Fosu, Boniface

Committee Member

Brown, Mike E.

Committee Member

Mercer, Andrew E.

Date of Degree

5-16-2025

Original embargo terms

Immediate Worldwide Access

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Major

Geoscience (Professional Meteorology and Climatology)

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Department

Department of Geosciences

Abstract

Tornado activity in the United States is influenced by large-scale climate patterns, especially by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). While prior research has explored ENSO’s impact on severe weather, the influence of ENSO flavors, Central Pacific (CP) and Eastern Pacific (EP), on tornadic activity remains understudied. Using tornado records, reanalysis data, and sea surface temperature anomalies, we assess how convective available potential energy (CAPE), wind shear, and jet stream dynamics influence tornado frequency and distribution. Results indicate that CP La Niña years had significant increases in tornado frequency, particularly across the Midwest, Central Plains, and Southeast. EP ENSO years had elevated tornado activity compared to CP El Niño years, which had the least tornadic activity. These findings highlight the need to incorporate ENSO diversity into seasonal tornado outlooks to improve forecasting accuracy. Understanding ENSO-related tornado variability is crucial for risk assessment, emergency preparedness, and future climate projections.

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