Theses and Dissertations

ORCID

https://orcid.org/0009-0001-7071-4901

Advisor

Brown, Michael E.

Committee Member

Mercer, Andrew E.

Committee Member

Saunders, Michelle E.

Date of Degree

5-16-2025

Original embargo terms

Visible MSU Only 1 year

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Campus Access Only

Major

Geoscience (Professional Meteorology and Climatology)

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Department

Department of Geosciences

Abstract

Meteorologists from sectors, including broadcast, academia, and operations, use derived composite indices such as 0-1km and 0-3km energy helicity index (EHI), effective-layer supercell composite parameter (SCP), fixed-layer and effective layer significant tornado parameter (STP), in addition to other resources, when developing severe local storm forecasts. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to create simulations of composite indices for two tornado-producing events: 31 March 2023 and 3 May 1999. With modifications to geographical location, these simulated scenarios are then utilized in the survey to gauge how meteorologists assess where tornado potential is highest. Additionally, a combination of qualitative and quantitative questions is incorporated to investigate how meteorologists perceive, interpret, and utilize these aforementioned composite indices in forecasting tornado potential. Findings may offer further improvement of the utility and reliability of forecasting tools in predicting tornado potential.

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