Theses and Dissertations

Issuing Body

Mississippi State University


Cho, Heejin

Committee Member

Mago, Pedro J.

Committee Member

Luck, Rogelio

Date of Degree


Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access


Mechanical Engineering

Degree Name

Master of Science


James Worth Bagley College of Engineering


Department of Mechanical Engineering


This thesis presents performance evaluation and a field validation study of a time and temperature indexed autoregressive with exogenous (4-3-5 ARX) building thermal load prediction model with an aim to integrate the model with actual predictive control systems. The 4-3-5 ARX model is very simple and computationally efficient with relatively high prediction accuracy compared to the existing sophisticated prediction models, such as artificial neural network prediction models. However, performance evaluation and field validation of the model are essential steps before implementing the model in actual practice. The performance of the model was evaluated under different climate conditions as well as under modeling uncertainty. A field validation study was carried out for three buildings at Mississippi State University. The results demonstrate that the 4-3-5 ARX model can predict building thermal loads in an accurate manner most of the times, indicating that the model can be readily implemented in predictive control systems.



load prediction accuracy||uncertainty analysis||field measurements||validation study||indexed prediction model||ARX models||cooling load||Building thermal load prediction