Theses and Dissertations

Issuing Body

Mississippi State University

Advisor

Fraza, Erik

Committee Member

Gutter, Barrett F.

Committee Member

Haney, Christa R.

Committee Member

Brown, Michael E.

Date of Degree

8-9-2022

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Major

Geosciences

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

College of Arts and Sciences

Department

Department of Geosciences

Abstract

Between 2011-2021, violent tornadoes accounted for an average of 65% of all tornado-related fatalities. The Violent Tornado Parameter (VTP), created in 2018, attempts to address this forecast problem but has issues with false alarms. Storm Relative Helicity has historically been used in tornado forecasting. Recent studies have shown the 0-500 m effective layer SRH (ESRH) has skill in discerning significantly tornadic events from those that are not.

This study explored the effects of incorporating 0-500 m ESRH into the VTP and issues relating to the parameter’s false alarm rate by examining RUC/RAP forecast soundings for 302 U.S. tornadic events (83 violent, 122 strong, 97 weak) from 2011 to 2020, along with test data from 2021. Overall, the study found that 0-500 m ESRH has skill in forecasting violent tornadoes, and that both the 0-3 km MLCAPE and 0-3 km Lapse Rate terms raised the parameter’s false alarm rate.

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