GRI Publications and Scholarship

ORCID

Samuel A Schmid: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9523-5459

Maxwell G Gebhart: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-2050-5459

Gray Turnage: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6337-6329

Abstract

Invasive species are one of the foremost threats to global biodiversity and predicting where they can inhabit is of primary concern for researchers and resource managers. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a useful tool for addressing this problem. This study focuses on Cyperus blepharoleptos (Cuban bulrush), an aquatic sedge that is invasive in the southeastern United States. To model the ecological niche of C. blepharoleptos, 1,137 records were compiled from North and South America and partitioned into training and testing data. Five BioClim variables (BIO1, BIO7, BIO12, BIO14, and BIO15) were selected as environmental variables for modeling. Using Maxent, 12 candidate models were constructed and following model selection, the best-fit model was used as the ENM for C. blepharoleptos. The ENM was then used to predict habitat suitability in five climate scenarios, present climate (1), best-case future climate for 2040 (2) and 2060 (3), and worst-case future climate for 2040 (4) and 2060 (5). Present climate predictions suggest suitable habitat in the Southeast in areas currently uninvaded, namely Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arkansas, and eastern Texas. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat is predicted to expand into Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Virginia. These predictions are compared to previous studies and future research directions are discussed.

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.54718/VZHV3738

Publication Date

12-13-2024

Research Center

Geosystems Research Institute

Disciplines

Biology | Ecology and Evolutionary Biology | Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology

Additional Files
schmid_cyperus_ENMs.zip (6369905 kB)
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