Theses and Dissertations
Issuing Body
Mississippi State University
Advisor
Mercer, Andrew E.
Committee Member
Brown, Michael E.
Committee Member
Dixon, P. Grady
Date of Degree
5-17-2014
Document Type
Graduate Thesis - Open Access
Major
Geosciences (Professional Meteorology/Climatology)
Degree Name
Master of Science
College
College of Arts and Sciences
Department
Department of Geosciences
Abstract
Tornado outbreaks have significant human impact, so it is imperative forecasts of these phenomena are accurate. As a synoptic setup lays the foundation for a forecast, synoptic-scale aspects of Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outbreak forecasts of varying accuracy were assessed. The percentages of the number of tornado outbreaks within SPC 10% tornado probability polygons were calculated. False alarm events were separately considered. The outbreaks were separated into quartiles using a point-in-polygon algorithm. Statistical composite fields were created to represent the synoptic conditions of these groups and facilitate comparison. Overall, temperature advection had the greatest differences between the groups. Additionally, there were significant differences in the jet streak strengths and amounts of vertical wind shear. The events forecasted with low accuracy consisted of the weakest synoptic-scale setups. These results suggest it is possible that events with weak synoptic setups should be regarded as areas of concern by tornado outbreak forecasters.
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11668/17777
Recommended Citation
Bates, Alyssa Victoria, "Contrasting Environments Associated with Storm Prediction Center Tornado Outbreak Forecasts using Synoptic-Scale Composite Analysis" (2014). Theses and Dissertations. 1173.
https://scholarsjunction.msstate.edu/td/1173