Theses and Dissertations

ORCID

0000-0002-5302-6496

Issuing Body

Mississippi State University

Advisor

Ramirez Avila, John J.

Committee Member

Freyne, Seamus

Committee Member

Gutenson, Joseph L.

Date of Degree

5-13-2022

Document Type

Graduate Thesis - Open Access

Major

Civil Engineering

Degree Name

Master of Science (M.S.)

College

James Worth Bagley College of Engineering

Department

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

Methods of forecasting streamflow using atmospheric ensembles and hydrologic routing have greatly improved over the past decades. These forecasts anticipate the timing and magnitude of streamflow peaks, enabling early warning of floods. Recent advances in atmospheric modeling have enabled production of forecasts months ahead, which are less precise but give a useful sense of trends.

The purpose of this study is to produce and evaluate a seasonal streamflow forecast model using a Muskingum routing hydrologic model coupled with runoff from a land surface model, and atmospheric input from a medium-term atmospheric and precipitation model. To evaluate the skill of the coupled model, resultant streamflow forecasts with lead times up to 90 days are compared with stream gage data across the three-year historical period of interest. The coupled model system performed well in downstream reaches and with shorter lead times, but forecast skill degraded for lead times past 15 days.

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