The Impact of Temperature and Water Stress on Cotton Planting Windows and Fiber Quality in Mississippi

ORCID

Marfo: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2221-3252

MSU Affiliation

College of Arts and Sciences; Department of Geosciences; College of Agriculture and Life Sciences; Department of Plant and Soil Sciences

Creation Date

2026-07-30

Abstract

Context: The quality of cotton fibers is a critical factor in determining the price farmers receive for their cotton. Planting date influences the temperature and water conditions experienced during fiber development and, therefore, significantly impacts fiber quality. Current methods for optimizing cotton planting dates to improve fiber quality typically assume ideal water availability throughout the growing period and do not account for interactions between temperature and water status. This study presents a modeling framework that combines long-term PRISM temperature data, leaf water potential (LWP), and a genetic algorithm to optimize planting dates and evaluate fiber quality in Mississippi. Methodology: The methodology accounts for temperature, LWP, planting intervals, cotton varieties (early, mid, and late-season), and four major fiber quality indicators (fiber length, strength, micronaire, and uniformity). Three scenarios (temperature-only, temperature and LWP, and sensitivity) were developed to evaluate the suitability of planting windows under varying temperatures and LWP conditions. Spatial maps showing the best planting dates and fiber quality for 66 cotton-growing counties in Mississippi were produced. Results: The results indicate that rising temperatures expand the planting window by accelerating the accumulation of growing degree days, particularly benefiting mid- and late-season cultivars. However, this expansion does not translate into improved fiber quality. When water stress is incorporated, the proportion of counties producing long-fiber cotton decreased from 100% under baseline conditions to zero under water-stress conditions, representing a complete loss of long-fiber classification and highlighting water availability as the dominant constraint on cotton fiber quality. Under sensitivity to warmer and drier conditions, all counties transition to lower-quality fiber classifications, indicating a potential loss of high-quality fiber classifications across the region. Conclusion: This study presents a county-level geospatial framework that integrates satellite-derived crop water stress indices and leaf water potential into a genetic algorithm optimization of cotton planting dates, an advance over prior approaches that assume non-limiting water availability. The results demonstrate that while temperature broadens planting flexibility, water stress is the dominant constraint on fiber quality, underscoring the need for region-specific adaptation strategies, including optimized planting windows, cultivar maturity selection, and irrigation management to minimize reproductive-stage water stress.

Publication Date

6-8-2026

Publication Title

Field Crops Research

Publisher

Elsevier

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Rights

© 2026 The Author(s)

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Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2026.110595