Theses and Dissertations

ORCID

https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8665-8574

Advisor

Ramirez-Avila, John

Committee Member

Curtis, David

Committee Member

Grigg, Neil

Committee Member

Lynn, Thomas

Date of Degree

5-15-2026

Original embargo terms

Visible MSU Only 2 Years

Document Type

Dissertation - Campus Access Only

Major

Engineering (Civil Engineering)

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

College

James Worth Bagley College of Engineering

Department

Richard A. Rula School of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Abstract

Reservoirs serve multiple purposes, and their operations must be performed effectively to reduce flood risk and safeguard infrastructure integrity, as well as to address other purposes. Operators may be able to use forecasts to enhance flood risk management (FRM) and improve outcomes for other objectives. Such operations have been termed Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO). This research focuses on reservoirs for which FRM is a primary or key objective, and at which FIRO can include pre-emptively evacuating reservoir storage ahead of a significant inflow event (i.e., pre-release). This study is novel in that it leverages a large regional dataset (58 dams in the south-central U.S) to assess the viability of using reservoir size as a screening criterion for the effectiveness of forecast-informed pre-release operations. Lines of inquiry included regression analysis of predictors that affect reservoir filling, identification of historic reservoir-filling events, and review of reservoir release constraints. Watershed, dam, and reservoir characteristics are used to develop a regression model to predict reservoirs for which reservoir filling is most sensitive to changes in flood storage capacity. Evaluation of historic flood events will provide insight as to the feasibility of FIRO pre-release based on seasonality and storm characteristics. Assessment of the physical and policy constraints that limit releases at or near top of conservation pool will delineate limitations on FIRO and provide an initial input to the screening framework. In developing a screening criterion for FIRO pre-release, we consider two pre-release methods: a “basic operation pre-release” (BO-PR) that adds to design flood storage capacity by evacuating conservation pool ahead of flood inflow; and “pre-store and pre-release” (PS-PR) operations that hold the pool of a reservoir higher than top of conservation pool to benefit a purpose such as water supply or hydropower, then evacuate the extra storage prior to the arrival of flood inflow. The results are utilized in a case study of five dams to assess the viability of using the regression equation as a criterion for pre-release screening.

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